Martin Romualdez and the Unshaken Majority in Congress

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🕓 Last Updated: June 4, 2025, 1:10 am (PH time)

House Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez, freshly reaffirmed by a 285-strong contingent of the House of Representatives—with 278 of them formally signing declarations of support—is poised to retain his powerful post as the 20th Congress convenes. While a supermajority coalition appears intact, the evolving behavior of legislative alliances and midterm election outcomes prompts a closer look at whether this dominance will remain unchallenged.

Historical Context: The 19th Congress Vote

Historically, Martin Romualdez’s ascension to the speakership during the opening of the 19th Congress in July 2022 was a solid testament to his political acumen. He secured an overwhelming 282 votes out of 309 House members, with only 4 abstentions and 22 not voting (GMA News, 2022). Furthermore, there was no, nada, nil official opposition that challenged his nomination, signifying an unprecedented level of consolidation among allies of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Despite the lack of a detailed public voting roll, this data reveals the Speaker’s commanding support that emerged from a well-crafted coalition that included major political parties—Lakas-CMD, PDP-Laban, Nacionalista, NPC, and numerous party-lists.

Behavioral Patterns in House Voting

Looking into the historical perspectives, Filipino lawmakers demonstrate pragmatic loyalty, often gravitating toward perceived centers of power. And that is legitimate by all common sense and observation. Unarguably, the Philippine House is notorious for bloc-voting behavior, particularly during speakership races. Party alignment, access to committee positions, development funds, and executive favor heavily influence lawmakers’ votes and perceived loyalty.

Moreover, and in more pragmatic observations, even during moments of turbulence, like the surprise ouster of Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez in 2018, internal coups have relied on elite orchestration and mass loyalty shifts. This course of events, if you could still remember, was usually brokered by political patrons such as former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (PGMA). This demonstrates how political survival often overrides ideological or policy differences.

The Midterm Election Effect

After the 2025 midterm elections, several political shifts have been noted, including the following:

  • By the numbers game, it is too obvious to take notice that Lakas-CMD retained a solid bloc with more than 100 representatives. But also notice this: before the elections, its membership had reached 109 members, showing a slight drop post-election. But here’s the math: the party still occupied 104 seats, comprising about one-third of the 310-member House. In other words, the party maintains an overwhelmingly substantial presence, that is, reaffirming its position as the most dominant political party in the Congress.
  • Party-list coalitions remained largely intact, particularly those that supported the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte.
  • PDP-Laban remnants and independent blocs showed more alignment toward Romualdez than any alternative center.

Who Might Shift?

Although precise loyalty shifts could not be predicted, potential weak points could paint a thousand words, and this includes the following:

  • Pro-Duterte loyalists, notably within Hugpong ng Pagbabago and regional independents, may reposition for 2028.
  • Party-list blocs not granted committee influence may defect or abstain. Thus, hurting the expected numbers is highly likely in favor of dropping.
  • Old-guard allies of former PGMA or past speakers might test internal power dynamics, yet subtly.

Yet still, the speakership is not imminently threatened. Speaker Martin Romualdez’s ability to distribute positions, respond swiftly to discontent, and align legislative priorities with the executive remains unmatched. That is legitimate, as pragmatic analysts perceive it.

Former PGMA’s Waning Influence

Former PGMA, once a speakership kingmaker, they called it, is now less dominant or at least invisible, to say it safely. While still a political force, her influence is unarguably eclipsed by a new generation of coalition builders.

Meanwhile, Speaker Martin Romualdez’s network spans beyond patronage. It does include legislative infrastructure, deep-rooted regional alliances, and most of all, the Marcos family backing. Then, with all these considerations, where would the former PGMA intelligently go, knowing by far that the incumbent House Speaker has too much of a bullet to hit the chair of Speakership, bull’s-eye?

Is Martin Romualdez 2028-Ready?

Though the 2028 ticket is fairly just farther than to imagine that it will happen, with continued legislative control, a national machinery, and a calm political demeanor, #SpeakerMartinRomualdez is positioning himself as a viable 2028 presidential contender. Unlike previous House leaders, his brand is less polarizing and more technocratic, making him palatable across regions and sectors.

If economic performance remains stable and no major controversies derail his base, the speakership may very well serve as the final launchpad for a presidential campaign. And this is exciting for the neutrals, yet too cumbersome to bear for both the opposition and moderates.

Knowing Neutrals and Moderates in Congress

➤ Neutrals

  • Legislators who shun affiliation with majority blocs (e.g., pro-Duterte or pro-Marcos).
  • Would rather abstain or maintain silent support on the basis of constituency demands.
  • Typically from regional parties or party-lists with no major bloc affiliation.

➤ Moderates

  • Centrist legislators who belong to coalitions but espouse less extreme stances.
  • Typically mediate in political disputes.
  • May swing either way depending on political mood and policy incentives.

Why They Matter

In House leadership elections, moderates and neutrals are often the tipping point, particularly in the context of internal coups or when political currents change. To keep a stable speakership, winning their votes and holding their support is crucial.

Final Thoughts

Who will be the speaker in the 20th Congress may, of course, lack suspense but not significance. The overwhelming support for Martin Romualdez, grounded in institutional power and political craftsmanship, is expected to rise and continue. Yet vigilance is needed: the House is a volatile chamber, where loyalty is fluid and ambition often trumps alliance. And the only way to keep numbers certain is to keep the uncertainty numbered. ▲▼

💬 AI Use Disclosure: This is an AI technology-assisted article (ChatGPT, OpenAI). 👉 Learn more about our AI use.

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